What a strange, strange game that was. The journey surprised me, yet the outcome thrilled me. I've got some comments on the game, and then a look at some of my predictions going into the game.
- The pass-interference call. At the time, I thought it was a textbook-correct call that should not have been made in that situation. Having had time to grow intimate with the official NFL rules concerning pass interference, however, I've decided that it was definitely a bad call. More on the ramifications after a bit of edification. From the above link, "actions that constitute defensive pass interference include but are not limited to:"
- Contact by a defender who is not playing the ball and such contact restricts the receiver's opportunity to make the catch. Samuel's contact on Lelie did not physically restrict Lelie from making the catch. Plus, Samuel was clearly playing the ball.
- Playing through the back of a receiver in an attempt to make a play on the ball. Didn't happen.
- Grabbing a receiver's arm(s) in such a manner that restricts his opportunity to catch a pass. Didn't happen.
- Extending an arm across the body of a receiver thus restricting his ability to catch a pass, regardless of whether the defender is playing the ball. Didn't happen.
- Cutting off the path of a receiver by making contact with him without playing the ball. This is the one that I thought (still do) that the refs were calling. Samuel clearly initiated contact with Lelie when Samuel's route caused him to run Lelie off of his route. However, at the time, Samuel was clearly looking back and looking up to play the ball, and thus pass interference does not apply.
- Hooking a receiver in an attempt to get to the ball in such a manner that it causes the receiver's body to turn prior to the ball arriving. Didn't happen.
- Field goals. The broadcasters astutely noted that Vinatieri's first field goal flew low to the ground because his foot bounced unforgivingly off the hard turf. This observation was confirmed minutes later when Elam's 50-yard attempt barely cleared the crossbar after coming in at a surprisingly low angle. Could worry over the hard turf have affected Vinatieri's failed attempt at a 43-yard kick in the fourth quarter? Probably not, but it's an interesting thought.
- Champ's interception (the good). Wow! According to a regular poster on the Broncos Usenet newsgroup, Champ Bailey and Darrent Williams had been discussing a particular play that the Patriots had been running in which two receivers lined up near one another and ran routes that almost—but not quite—resulted in a pick against the defensive backs. To counter this, Bailey and Williams discussed staying at home when the play was next run, rather than following their man into the almost-pick. This scheming combined with a successful blitz on the fateful third down, leading to Champ being in perfect position to snag the pass and rumble 100 yards downfield...
- Champ's interception (the bad). ...except at the end of the run, Champ slowed up, and—even worse—safety-turned-blocker Nick Ferguson failed to check his right before tailing off his pursuit, allowing never-say-die tight-end Ben Watson to race across the field and punch out the ball a yard or two before the pylon. Replays were clearly inconclusive (yes that makes sense), but I'd guess (based on how far out-of-bounds the ball appeared to land) that the call on the field was correct. Any idea why a fumble through the endzone results in a touchback? That rule has always seemed awfully draconian to me. For a particularly bizarre and inaccurate account of this play, check out the last paragraph of this week's Tuesday Morning Quarterback.
I didn't make many explicit predictions in this space last week, but I did cast out a few general observations. First, I noticed that the Broncos' health had improved since the regular season matchup along with that of the Patriots', particularly Champ Bailey. Plus one in that category, as Champ siezed the game-winning interception. I lauded the Broncos as a more well-rounded team than the Patriots. While the Patriots outplayed the Broncos in between the 20-yard lines, the Broncos dominated the key plays in the red zone and on special teams. I'll call this one a wash as I expected the Broncos offense to be more effective against the Pats D than it was. I worried about the Broncos rookie cornerbacks, and they had an average game but did keep their Patriots charges under control for the most part. Zero. Finally, I pointed out the bootleg, which proved to be the game-sealing play as the Broncos used it to connect for a 42-yard Plummer–to–Smith completion with eight minutes left in the ball game. Plus one on that observation as well.
I made some more details predictions in an email that I sent to two of my Pats-fan poker buddies. To them I opined:
Unless the Patriots jump out to more than a 7 point lead, the Broncos will most likely keep Dillon and Faulk under control. The Pats ran well against Jacksonville, but the Jags barely showed up to play, and Denver averaged 20 yards less rushing per game against in the regular season then the Jags did. I'll be surprised if the gameis close and the Patriots end up rushing much more than 20 times.New England's running backs ran for 80 yards on exactly 20 carries. Not horrible, but pretty much inline with my prediction here. Plus one for me. Next I said:
I expect the Patriots will be successful, as usual, throwing the ball. Brady rarely makes any mistakes, so any success the Broncos have defending the pass (as opposed to "defending [Patrick] Pass") will have to be of their own making. I'd expect Champ to effectively take Deion Branch out of the game, but that doesn't hurt the Pats too much (evidence: Watson, Benjamin) as they have plenty of outlets for Brady to deliver the ball to.Hmm, there's a bunh there. Brady made a lot of mistakes, including several badly thrown balls and the game-changing interception. But he also had a fair amount of success, amassing 341 passing yards on 20 of 36 passing. Champ lined up against different receivers throughout the game, and as such Branch and Givens both earned good, solid numbers. (Branch's Steve Smith-esque 153 receiving yards are half due to his single 73-yard reception in the 4th quarter.) Tight-ends? Non-factors. Daniel Graham had one reception; Fauria and Watson had none. I'll take a big ol' minus one on that prediction. I next speculated on the Broncos' offensive chances:
In particular, I think Brady can pick on the Broncos safeties (Lynch is great but has lost a step due to age, Ferguson and Brandon at SS have had a solid year, but are not NFL-elite players.) and perhaps even more on the linebackers. Now, the Broncos have a great LB corps, but a lot of their speed and talent goes towards stopping the run. Teams have had success with drags, hitches, and other routes in the middle of the field which the LBs have to defend. In particular, Jason Witten (TE, Cowboys) picked the Broncos LB pass coverage apart on Thanksgiving Day. That said, it would be unusual for Bellichick to go with a TE-heavy strategy two weeks in a row, but that might be the most productive option for the passing game, and it worries me. The CB opposite Champ is Darrent Williams who's a rookie (or Dominique Foxworth if Williams is injured, but he's also a rookie). He's been great... but he's a rookie. I expect most of the time he'd do a great job covering the Pats' #2 receiver (Givens), but given that it's the playoffs, he's facing Tom "Playoffs" Brady, and he's a rookie, it wouldn't surprise me to see him get burned once or twice in the game.
They'll run, and I'll be surprised if they don't run successfully. The two-headed approach of the hard-hitting Anderson and the speedy Bell has been successful against all teams all season.The best way for the Pats to stop the run is to get a lead. Otherwise, the Broncos rushing game will get its yards one way (4-yard chunks) or another (big run by Tatum).Well, they did run (25 times) and they weren't particularly successful (88 yards) and I was surprised at the Pats' excellent rush-stopping play. The line couldn't open any big holes, and until the fourth quarter, the Broncos were unable to rely on the rush for much. Minus one in this prediction, although Mike Anderson did an excellent job of earning some first downs in the fourth quarter to help eat up the clock. Oh, and his run eight-yard run to the New England 4-yard line immediately before the touchdown pass to Rod Smith was a thing of beauty; especially the part where he ducked under the arms of two engaged linemen to scamper for a few extra yards. Finally I wrote:
When the Broncos pass, it's all play-action and bootleg. Pressuring Jake doesn't buy much on the play-actions when he's rolling out, but when he stays in the pocket I expect Richard Seymour and the rest of them will make it pretty tough on Plummer. In the meeting earlier this season, the Broncos completed two huge pass plays (50+ yards) against the Pats' secondary -- I don't see that happening at all this week. (1) The Pats secondary is much healthier than it was then -- it still is the weakest part of the defense, but not like it was earlier this year. (2) I don't think the Broncos will *try* to burn the Patriots deep more than a couple of times in the game. I think they'll be ball-control on offense, and try to control the clock. Broncos haven't turned the ball over much, that needs to continue for the Broncos to have a chance in this game.Hit-or-miss. I wasn't totally accurate in my assessment of the Broncos passing game this year, as Jake has really learned to be a bit more of a pocket passer, though that is still the weakest part of his game. The Broncos did play ball-control for the most part, and did not connect on the two or three times that they threw the ball deep (one such attempt led to Plummer's only interception on a badly underthrown ball). Samuel played a great game at CB and prevented any big plays.
Finally, a few days before the game Dodzie and I exchanged some more specific thoughts on how we saw the game evolving:
| Category | My Prediction | Dodzie's Prediction | Actual Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | Broncos | Patriots | Broncos |
| Final Score | 21–17 | 27–24 | 27–13 |
| Rushing Yards, Broncos | 135 (80 by Anderson, 45 by Bell, 10 by Plummer) | 125 | 96 (69 by Anderson, 19 by Bell, 8 by Plummer) |
| Rushing Yards, Patriots | 75 (40 by Dillon, 35 by Faulk) | 100 (30 by Dillon, 70 by Faulk | 80 (57 by Dillon, 23 by Faulk) |
| Passing Yards, Broncos | 200 | 200 | 197 (not bad, eh?) |
| Passing Yards, Patriots | 300 | 280 | 341 |
| Sacks, by the Broncos | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Sacks, by the Patriots | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Turnovers, Broncos | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Turnovers, Patriots | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Offensive Star, Broncos | Mike Anderson (80 yards, 2 TDs) | Ben Hamilton (um, ok Dodzie) | Rod Smith (96 yards, 1 TD) Mike Anderson (69 yards, 2 TDs) |
| Offensive Star, Patriots | Givens | Brady | Brady? (20/36, 341 yards, 1 TDs, 2 INTs Deion Branch (8 catches, 153 yards) |
| Defensive Star, Broncos | Ian Gold | no opinion | Champ Bailey |
| Defensive Star, Patriots | Richard Seymour (3 sacks) | Richard Seymour | Seymour? (4 tackles, 1 sack) Samuel? Ty Warren? (8 tackles) |
| Goat | Ben Watson | Jake Plummer | Vinatieri? (missed FG) Brady? (INT in the endzone) Refs? |
In addition, I predicted that the Broncos scoring plays would be an eight yard run by Mike Anderson, a three yard run by Anderson, and a twenty yard bootleg play-action pass to Rod Smith. For the Pats I predicted a 30 yard reception to Givens, a two yard pass to Vrabel, and a 39-yard field goal by Vinatieri. In actuality, the scoring plays were 32- and 40-yard Vinatieri field goal, two one-yard runs by Anderson, a four-yard rollout pass to Rod Smith, a four-yard pass to Givens, and field goals of 34 and 50 yards by Jason Elam. All in all, I'm relatively impressed with my predictions, and you should be too.
So, this coming Sunday at 3pm ET the Broncos host the Steelers. After the dismantling that the Steelers handed to the Colts (bad calls against both teams notwithstanding), I'm nervous about the matchup. Both teams feature one speed runner (Bell, Parker) and one power runner (Anderson, Bettis). Both teams feature hairy quarterbacks. Both teams feature speedy linebackers and a dominant safety (Lynch, Polamalu). Both teams feature a deviously skillful primary wide receiver (Smith, Ward) and a speedy second receiver (Lelie, Randle-El). Both teams feature deeper-than-usual pass-catching tight-end threats (Putzier, Miller). Broncos have home-field advantage and, I believe, a coaching advantage. I'll take the Broncos by a touchdown: 23–16.
god damn you like sports.